ISIS And All That !

In one of my earlier post , I wrote about the victory of Assad forces and the world should reconcile with him. However, the global political equation is far too complex to maneuver so quickly. Now, it has become a clear divide in Middle East between the Sunnis and Shias.

Look at the irony of the situation. IS takes over Iraq and shows extreme brutality openly and yet Saudi does not lift its little finger. But Yemen president is displaced and the country starts getting bombed  by the Saudis. If only Saudis would have shown the leadership with IS in Iraq, it could have taken a leading position. But, it allowed Iran to get away with Iraq and now with Yemen. Practically, Iran has now become a dominant force in the Middle East to fight the terrorism.

Till date Syrian forces are fighting for their country, but Iraqi forces quit one city after another and leave heavy armory in the hands of ISIS. This is the class of army trained by US. The air strikes alone can never achieve the ground victory. It has to be taken by an army only. But whose army ? It is time again to reconcile with Syrian army , atleast they have shown chivalry to fight till the end. This is the only army, which can remove ISIS from Syria.

The reasoning of Assad killing his own people is no more sustainable. Libya, Iraq, Egypt, Tunisia are glaring examples, where local revolutions did not culminate into matured democracies. Assad, if could have been displaced in early stages was still another story, but after so many years, he has legitimized his position.

Iran after the nuclear deal will certainly become a strong nation. And that is good for US as it becomes the guardian of some of US interest. Oil prices would become still better and the Shia , Sunni balance will be established.

ISIS is product of radicalism and Iraq political fall out. But I dont buy this story that Sunni victimization by Shias in these areas created ISIS. 

In one of my post during the Iraq disturbance , I had written that Bush should come on TV and announce, if the Iraqs dont stop killing one another, then US will divide the country into 4 parts, Shia, Sunni, Kurds and American State. I wish Bush, had read my blog and implemented the same. No ISIS today and we would have seen two new countries with one American state in Middle East. And ofcourse, the American state would be the one with the most oil. Even, now, if US chooses to enter the way, then this should be the condition that it will divide Iraq into 4 parts. Well, if Russians can take Crimea,, then US can take away part of Iraq. 

Syria : The War Lost.

Obama got bailed out by the Russians and the situation has changed dramatically.

For me , it is a very amusing to see , as to how the global leaders work with conflicts. Same US, which was threatening to damn Syria within 24 hours , not has taken a backfoot and not only that, it goes to weeks and months and as much as the time table shows the complete destruction of Chemical weapons by middle of 2014.

Weapons deceleration, weapons inspection, UN inspectors, destruction of weapons etc etc is all humbug of another kind. What stops Assad in moving the chemical weapons to Iran or Hizbollah or even hand it over to Al Qaida. Al Qaida only enemy in the world is one. I don't know, how all this makes sense. But for the time being Diplomacy has taken another turn.

The whole subject is about bringing about peace in Syria , it is not about people being killed by chemical weapons or conventional weapons. US really messed up. The statement which was apt was that enough the world has seen the killings of innocent Syrians and now it will not sit and watch anymore. However, it went in with Red Lines and Orange lines.

The delay in action by the world has ensured that Assad has practically won the war. Standing against the rebels for 3 years has brought up him legitimacy with whatever people are still there in Syria. The army has also shown loyalty to him and now with Russian support, it has become far more stronger then ever before. He is now in for atleast couple of more years.

The media has never been able to report as to how much of Syria is actually in hands of rebels and how much in the hands of Assad. If large part is with Assad, then any case the war is over. Rebels have no chance at all .

The initial defections of Syrian ministers did create a chance for the world to quickly act and take control, but US failed to act then.

The only way forward is to get the Rebels to now accept the Peace process with the current government and forget about the civil war. They have no chance for them to win anymore. Atleast, it will stop further killing of people and allow the millions of refugees from Jordan, Turkey, Iraq to get back to their home country.

Syria should then be entrusted with International Peace keeping force as was in Bosnia or Rwanda.

Let fresh elections take place and if Assad still succeeds in winning, then there is no choice for the world to accept that a war criminal ( as said by Ban Hi Moon) enjoys his peoples support. But let us try the election route once. Assad has already promised elections within 6 months of restoration of peace.

The Iraq experience or Libya experience are not really a happy situation, where dictators were removed and yet the country faces daily deaths with interfaith collusion's. Hence, for whatever it is worth for sometime, let the dictator continue.

Lesson to learn : Stitch in time, saves nine.

Red Line Crossed : Syria

Finally the world powers decide that the Red line is crossed with the usage of chemical weapons.'

Curiously for me, if people die of bombs and rockets and bullets, it is a yellow line, but if they get killed of chemical weapons, it is red line. For the last 3 years, I have been advocating for an action against Syrian forces to stop the massacare, but it was still a yellow line.

Now, when things have become so bad with Jihadis and Al Qaida and hundred other groups fighting against the Syrian army, it hardly makes sense to move further into the conflict.

Mind, it is the same Intelligence services, who said, Saddam had weapons of mass destruction and nothing was found. For this time sure the chemical weapons have been used. Of which there is no doubt. But let fair chance be given to the Syrian Govt to show that they were not the ones to use it.
If actually proven that the Syrian army used chemical weapons, they should be beaten to pulp. No mercy.

Further, the argument being used is that , the attack on Syria is not for regime change, but to stop chemical weapons being used. It should be both.

I was listening to the speech of Comrade Cameron and then a spokesman of US white house and then the  French minister, loudly talking about that UN conventions on chemical weapons and the world cannot accept this usage etc etc.

Will I ever forget in my lifetime the usage of Agent Orange, the chemical weapon by US army in Vietnam war , where 400,000 people were killed and till date people suffer. Does morally US have an argument against Syria on Chemical weapons.

Nevertheless, if it stands up today to correct the situation, I am quite in support of military intervention in Syria and I have been asking for it for years. Though, now I personally feel, it is time to move Assad out and allow the new leadership to take over. It can still be mix of the Syrian rebels and the current leadership. There is generally a fatigue with the war and both parties might accept the situation.

Let us wait and see, what further happens.

Egypt and Syria Revisited

Egypt
Islamist accept to negotiate with the military and request for stopping the crackdown. Media quietly ignores this after flashing out days of killings and protest. None of the global media tried to pose reasonable questions during the debates and interviews.  Result was 1000s of lives lost. It is no more die for Morsi,, but live for Morsi. If only this little thing could have been understood by the leadership of MB and his supporters.

If only media plays a somewhat constructive roll, then to flare up the subject, much can be saved in time. Anyway, now MB has written itself off for a very long time to come. Underground or overground, the love for MB will only dwindle as it did not show this political maturity of " Live for Morsi, against Die for Morsi".

MB should also ask itself this question, why despite its benign work for the last 70 years, the people don't trust them. Why there is so much resentment in Egypt against MB. How the world has changed the perception of religion to be a spiritual force and not a political force. Why religious agenda gets booted out in each country and secularism is accepted more sparingly without the need of commotions and purging.

In Egypt case, clearly the global media did not play a constructive roll and played a theoretical roll of supporting elected democracy, but failing to offer a viable solution in a situation of conflict. They charged up emotions and made the people believe that conflict with the army finally may pave results. What is the outcome now?

Syria

Again, the media is playing a roll same as in Egypt and creating a situation of further madness. It is already too late now for the Western powers to do anything in Syria. In some of my earlier blogs , I wrote about chicken hear-ted diplomacy in Syria and that resulted now in Syria going into the hands of Dogs. It is now no more Syria liberation from Assad, now the battle has been taken over by jihad-is and Al Qaeda .

Western powers will be very foolish to displace Assad now. It is very very late. Any removal of Assad makes the country slip into the hands of Al Qaeda.

Assad would have not been such a fool to invite the UN chemical weapons team and then bomb his own neighborhood with chemical weapons the next day. I would quite accept the Russian theory on this of attack by the rebels , specially at the time, when the UN inspectors were there.  This is certainly a war game being played out. Whatever, it is the price being paid by the innocent civilians and it is a shame to see so many die for nothing.

Assad came out to be a very shrewd politician. Iran, Russia and China supporting Syria makes it almost impossible for any western army to get into a war situation. The fact that Syrian army has resisted the conflict so long, it has reassured Assad that there is still time for him there.

Best is to have a political solution in engaging with Assad and persuading him to step down and give way to a new leadership. All it takes is removal of Assad and everything changes in Syria.

It is too late now to get into a war. More important is to avoid Syria going into the hands of Al Qaeda.

Meantime, the catastrophe of millions of refugees ,pouring into Turkey and Kurdistan continues.

Syria : Chicken Hearted Diplomacy!

When it was Libya, France took an initiative  of sky raiding the country and overthrowing " Qaddafi". Europe , US and others supported with the exception of few .

One wonders, if life in Syria is less worth then life of a person in Libya. It is now around a year that people in Syria are fighting against a regime, which has now ruled them for more then half a century. When it was Libya, quickly NATO and others jumped on the wagon and crippled the governing forces. However, in Syria, despite the screaming clamor of help by the people and the breakaway army faction, the world is idling on it.

Yesterday, Kofi Annan made a pitch with Assad and came back empty handed. UN like a lame duck has hardly every been able to bring fruitful results in any conflict zone. Whether it was Somalia, Rwanda or Egypt. If Kofi had any  guts, he should have told Assad that the world has been too much patient and he would surely meet the fate of Qaddafi or Saddam or Hosni, if he did not make a quick exit now. However, he goes and cries for reconciliation , when he clearly sees millions of protesters on the road and hundreds of killings. And why reconciliation with a Dictator ? Is Kofi an ex UN Chief or a Conflict Tourister.

In case of Libya, very quickly the International Criminal Court stepped in and brought a warrant for the capture of Qaddafi on his war crimes. In case of Assad, the ICC does nothing. Who will have faith in ICC henceforth.

The Americans have been giving lip service and no one wants to assign the job to NATO. It is also seen that OIC has no meaning to any of its following countries. All big talks and big blown up budgets, but no one is bothered about the Arab League .

Turkey sits on the fence and watches the drama unfold. No one has the guts to fight Assad.

It is time, when NATO takes over the sky raiding and the rebel army is reinforced. Assad has still time to exit, but not too much.

Middle East Mania.

Middle East in on the brink of collapse. Almost all the governments are on sticky wicket. When they fall like pack of cards is still not known.

Atleast after 65 years of World War II, the people in Middle East are waking up and demanding their democratic rights. Far too long, they have been treated like cattle's. The up rise is very easily understandable. Despite the oil wealth ,the middle east has not seen the kind of economic comfort of the common man. The oil wealth has been limited to the hands of few and for the general public, life is still a struggle for survival.

Anycase, change is more then welcome and I salute each single soul, who has left his house and joined the crowd to protest against decades of misgoverning without caring for his life.

My only and biggest worry is that it should not result into moving from Frying Pan To Fire. We had seen change in Iran, when the Shah was overthrown and we already see, what is the result. We had seen change in Iraq, where Saddam was overthrown and we see, what a mess it is. And this is what worries me most.

There are no proper Good Governance Models, which can be immediately implemented. The flux can only mean gain for some unscrupulous elements unless Good Governance is well defined and taken over by the new leaders.

Besides the Defense support, which each of these countries might finally need to get rid of their autocratic rulers, the most important support they would need from UN is the Good Governance Models, which they can quickly action it. Otherwise, their situation will be no different from the Ugly corruption and backwardness and bureaucracy of countries, which though are democratic, yet are riddled with screwing their own people.

UN in the coarse of last 65 years has not made one single documents, which defines Good Governance and can be a model which a country could embrace for its progressive outlook. This is the reason I have been critical with UN earlier. Most UN employees, just have a holiday job and enjoy their plum postings and get retired.

UN has a very big job cut out now. If it misses this time, then it will do a great disservice to all the people who are fighting it out for a Brand New Future.