Missing Malaysian Plane : Messy Announcements! Does not look in Sea.

Todays is perhaps , day 10, when first the debris was identified in the South Indian Ocean.
Thanks to the Inmarsat pings and doppler calculations. It does seem the whole thing is wrong.

After identifying so many objects of various lengths, various widths, colors and then ships and planes reaching the spot and nothing worthwhile is found. No updates are announced on the wrong objects found and then the search is shifted to another location 1000 kms away. Here the ships end up catching sea junk and jelly fish.

The whole premises of search is based on some radar clue that the plane turned back and then the Inmarsat calculations. If the Plane actually did not turn back, then the Inmarsat calculations go totally wrong.

Simple common sense, if pilot wanted to crash the plane, he will not fly all the way to middle of nowhere to crash. And surely not the spot, where the plane debris is being currently found.

The missing plane has to be somewhere enroute to China. Rest is all speculation.

It is also becoming clear that this is a Plane failure and not a Pilot error. 

The Malaysian Govt, Australian Govt all have messed up in announcing that the plane has crashed in the sea based on mathematical calculations without one small piece of physical evidence in hand. Now they are struggling with the sea junk . Let us hold on and see, if they will have egg on their faces.

Each day, they come up, This this this saw new objects and second day , that that that saw new objects and nothing is found at all.

The simplest way is to send a ship on the same flight path, which the plane was to take and look for the pings from the black box.

As for the debris, I saw some orange and red color objects in the river near Bandung. But that does not mean, the plane came and crashed in the river here. Let them stop all this nonsense and use proper common sense.

The first thing that the airlines should allow with immediate effect is the use of wifi in the plane, so that each pax is armed with instant messaging in case of emergency.

Mystery of the Missing Malaysian Plane.

No one missed the innumerable discussions and the press conferences of Malaysian Transport Minister over the missing plane.

At the outset, I would say, I can only sympathize with the families of pax on board and also sympathize with Malaysian airline management / Malaysian Government.

There is a lot of criticism of Malaysian Government in hiding or revealing facts much later. But in a situation like this, everything needs to be checked and examined many a times, before a public statement can be made. There are hundreds of leads which keep coming and one has to filter it and find substance in it, before it can be presented.

The Plane taking a Turn is one such event. Nevertheless, Malaysian Govt handled it prudently, though , it may have been criticized by many around the world.

However, I could not understand, why none of the media professionals raised the following questions.

1. Whether the lap top of the Pilot ceased and if the lap top shows any kind of anger, frustration or grouse against something.  
2. What conversations did he have with the last 5 to 10 people he met.
3. The plane takes a Turn around Malaysia, and then passes around Malaysia  into the Southern Indian Ocean. There should be more radars, which should have captured the movement.
4. The fuel in the plane was enough for how many hours of flight. And now with Immarsat records, it shows that it flew for around 5 hours . So, fuel running out is also a speculation.
5. After Immarsat location, it is largely aussie, US, Uk , Japan and China who have send their ships for possible recovery. How come Malaysia did not send a ship?
6. Apparently, it is now showing up that he was at "Anwar`s" Trial and was there at the court, when Anwar got convicted. Many a Malaysian`s were not pleased with this. Read the link below
7. http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/top-news/2014/03/28/anwars-conviction-the-ugly-truth-about-bn/

There were many many missing answers in the plane vanishing into the blue.

1. The flight track is generally seen on the video screen in front of the seat. At anytime, one can see, how far and how much more time to the destination. But perhaps, this was also shut down by the pilot.
2. Some of the communication systems are located at the back of the plane and very unlikely, the pilot would have gone all the way back to shut these communication systems.
3. The crew would have easily sensed the wrong flight path or something going wrong and could have easily tried to contact base station via the phone system, which is there on each seat of the plane. These phones are not controlled from the cockpit and are managed by the crew.
4. The Co-pilot would have not allowed such a flight path.
5. The 229 pax will not sit quiet , sensing something is wrong.
6. How come Boeing does not have an online tracking of its plane via GSP? There should have been secondary modes of communication, even if primary mode is shut off or fails.
7. Why Boeing does not send automatic alerts, if a plane deviates from its route?
8. Why Boeing does not send SOS signals , when the fuel is below a certain level?
9. A pilot wanting to crash a plane will not fly it all the way into the middle of the sea and wait for the fuel to get over. He would rather follow the 9/11 event.
10. Every time you fly the crew gives you a demo, that in case of plane landing on sea, what needs to be done. How come none of the pax managed to escape, via the emergency and front doors.?

Overall, there are too many missing answers and hopefully the recovery of black box will give the right answers.

Meantime the debris keeps changing its position every single day. First, it is the site of a big object of size 30 mtrs long and then that disappears, then the Chinese satellite spots another object of 20 mtrs and that disappears, then 100 objects are seen and these disappear, again 300 are seen and these disappear. Now a new theory has come up, that the debris is in another location. This is really becoming a joke. Looks like more like satellite photography, then real plane objects. Somebody spots a red color object . then another an orange color and it goes on and on.  Curiously, what happened to the ships, which moved all the way close to all the points, where the debris were spotted? What happened to the Norwegian vessel, which was  very close to the first spot, where the debris was spotted by the French satellite. None of the journalist raised these questions. The most interesting phase would be, if actually the debris is not found in the sea and the plane is still missing. To my mind, a pilot will not fly this far to crash a plane.

But, if by any chance, it does get proven from the black box that indeed the pilot crashed the plane and it was linked to his non acceptance of Anwar`s conviction. That would be very critical for the Malaysian Govt.

Having said, that it would be very scary for everyone to fly here onwards, because affiliations to political parties, religious hardliners, or for that any matter ,which the pilot is in conflict with will now be a reason for risk of passengers. Have we not seen that the first Suicide bomb was done by LTTE and then so many copied it. Before LTTE, there were no suicide bombers. Today, routinely one sees suicide bombers.'

I am only worried, this should not change to suicide pilots. Yesterday, it was Malaysian pilot and tomorrow, it can be Egypt pilot, who perhaps does not support Sisi or the Egyptian judicial system. ( 559 people given death sentence. Egypt has made a mockery of its judicial system ) This should not become another aviation high risk, which cannot be checked by security or making a plane fool proof.

Anyway, it is too early to make such comments and I only hope, the event is not related to politics and judiciary in anyway. But ,since the plane disappeared. I have changed all my travel plans and will fly only and only a certain set of airlines.

Many years back, I put my palm reading offering to airlines to get their pilots fate approved for flight safety. But then most of the world still believes, these things have little value. Yet, whatever value it has, atleast, it will still save many a life. There are very clear markings of suicide or other such high risk behavior in a hand.

Herein my link and hope the airlines take a serious note of it. 
http://paybackpalmistry.page.tl/

Never underestimate fate. Unfortunately, it has still not been taken as a serious science, but some day maths will show the vector position of a point in line and give exact events that can be mapped to such a marking in hand. It is only a matter of time. I have practiced this now for 35 years and more and more, I have found a very strong co-relation between hand markings and events in life. Most think, it is a joke, but when it actually happens, they come and fall on your feet.

East Vs West Europe. Crimea Slips.

Ukraine loses Crimea in the battle between the EU and Russia. But having said that, the big mess was again made by EU and US. 

Ukraine could have very well lived without Crimea and would have been happy to work out a deal with Russia and be part of EU. But when the super powers step in , they mess up more then the solve the issues.

As much as the people in Crimea want to merge with Russia and there is a grey area of it being an autonomous region and its dotted line relationship with Russia. EU and US should have rather worked out with Ukraine to be more positive about its relationship with them, then keeping Crimea.

Are we not talking looking forward to a referendum in Scotland and , when Scotland breaks up from UK, will anyone look forward to sanctions and limitations to Scots. 

For me, the very first day, the president of Ukraine moved out to Russia and the Crimea thing came up, it was clear that Ukraine will soon have to kiss good bye to Crimea. But it happened much too faster then I had imagined.

Russia taking over Crimea is a scene of jubilation in Russia and a major cause of problem with the rest of the world.  Ukraine has been further arm twisted with high gas prices and more subsidies will vanish soon. But, Ukraine should move forward without Crimea and step by step build a new nation, which is more west oriented.

Ukraine giving away nuclear arms, retrospectively seems to have backfired. If it was still nuclear armed, perhaps, it could have still negotiated from a position of strength. But this has set up a very poor example as most countries will now quote the Ukraine situation, before giving away Nuclear assets.

Russia on the other side has lost Ukraine and will have NATO on its door steps. Russia is losing all its ex Soviet block countries to West and it is about time, that it changes itself to the Western way of working and be part of it.

Nobel Peice Prize or Peace Prize ?

Year after year, the committee is goofing up with the Nobel Peace Prize. This year, it goes to the OPCW . An organization, which has hardly done anything meaningful for the world so far.  Days after Syria accepted to abandon the chemical weapons stock, the OPCW gets a Nobel Peace Prize. Nothing can be more hilarious then this.

Last year, it was EU, again when the organization is struggling against its own unification and countries already looking towards exiting EU, the organization gets a Nobel Peace Price. But still atleast , it had a point that since the world war 2, there has not been any war in Europe. However, did it merit getting Nobel Peace prize is highly debatable.

Before that in 2009 , it was Obama. The president was just commissioned and within days, he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. Absolutely no background or history of peace making, but gets away with a Nobel Peace Prize.

The organizations, which merited getting a Nobel Peace Prize could have been the following

1. Reporters without Frontiers
2. Internet Inventor
3. Gorbachev for dismantling communism in Europe 

History will certainly not look kindly on the committee to have not honored "Gandhi" with this award, despite being the messiah of peace .

It is about time, the committee does its home work right. Before the soul of Mr Nobel gets very disturbed with this war on peace.

Change of Guard: Iran.

How a leader can make such a big difference to any country / organization/ institution is seen from the New President Of Iran.

Overwhelming victory in elections because of voice of moderation and promising economic acceleration to the country is now showing up in words and deeds.

Within days of his commissioning , he reached out to the world and took UN by the storm. Unlike his predecessor, who had a fixed agenda of Israel obsession, Rouhani turned the tables completely. No other president in the history has made such a significant U Turn, other then Gorbachev.

What was most appealing about Rouhani was the calm, composed and saintly image against the other Pop Star Presidents at UN. He spoke with wisdom and conviction and got the whole world to his side. Though Israel still drums against Iran, however, this time, Iran ran away with the trophy. If Israel goofs up this time, there never again will come a time to have peace with Iran. What they did with Egypt many decades back needs to be replicated with Iran now. Automatically Hezbollah, Hamas and Others get neutralized.

Iran back into the global community will make a very huge difference to the economy of the world. Practically a whole new country will open up for biz with multi billion dollar prospects. The oil prices also sharply drop and a new Middle East Giant will emerge after decades of isolation.

Rouhani in Persian means, " The Soul".  Therefore, Iraninas have chosen to speak out from their Soul this time and time has come to get all sanctions out of Iran. And let Iran join the main stream nations. Iran always has been a very technologically advanced nation despite all the sanctions and now with sanctions on its way out, the country will rise and shine.

I use to tell my Swiss friend, that the most beautiful women in the world come from Iran. Infact, if Iran was to participate in the Ms Wold contest, each year, they would have been crowned with the Ms World.  I am already looking forward to that stage, when Iranian women take a lead and show their crowning glory to the world with all the new changes.

I am also looking forward to visit Iran again soon.

Syria : The War Lost.

Obama got bailed out by the Russians and the situation has changed dramatically.

For me , it is a very amusing to see , as to how the global leaders work with conflicts. Same US, which was threatening to damn Syria within 24 hours , not has taken a backfoot and not only that, it goes to weeks and months and as much as the time table shows the complete destruction of Chemical weapons by middle of 2014.

Weapons deceleration, weapons inspection, UN inspectors, destruction of weapons etc etc is all humbug of another kind. What stops Assad in moving the chemical weapons to Iran or Hizbollah or even hand it over to Al Qaida. Al Qaida only enemy in the world is one. I don't know, how all this makes sense. But for the time being Diplomacy has taken another turn.

The whole subject is about bringing about peace in Syria , it is not about people being killed by chemical weapons or conventional weapons. US really messed up. The statement which was apt was that enough the world has seen the killings of innocent Syrians and now it will not sit and watch anymore. However, it went in with Red Lines and Orange lines.

The delay in action by the world has ensured that Assad has practically won the war. Standing against the rebels for 3 years has brought up him legitimacy with whatever people are still there in Syria. The army has also shown loyalty to him and now with Russian support, it has become far more stronger then ever before. He is now in for atleast couple of more years.

The media has never been able to report as to how much of Syria is actually in hands of rebels and how much in the hands of Assad. If large part is with Assad, then any case the war is over. Rebels have no chance at all .

The initial defections of Syrian ministers did create a chance for the world to quickly act and take control, but US failed to act then.

The only way forward is to get the Rebels to now accept the Peace process with the current government and forget about the civil war. They have no chance for them to win anymore. Atleast, it will stop further killing of people and allow the millions of refugees from Jordan, Turkey, Iraq to get back to their home country.

Syria should then be entrusted with International Peace keeping force as was in Bosnia or Rwanda.

Let fresh elections take place and if Assad still succeeds in winning, then there is no choice for the world to accept that a war criminal ( as said by Ban Hi Moon) enjoys his peoples support. But let us try the election route once. Assad has already promised elections within 6 months of restoration of peace.

The Iraq experience or Libya experience are not really a happy situation, where dictators were removed and yet the country faces daily deaths with interfaith collusion's. Hence, for whatever it is worth for sometime, let the dictator continue.

Lesson to learn : Stitch in time, saves nine.

Obama : Trapped his own Red Circle.

British Parliament voted against the military action by their forces in Syria, French took a U turn and totally changed their language. Obama got caught in his own Red Circle.

After having announced that within hours, days, it was ready to strike like this> And now has gone to the Congress to take a vote for the action. Just in case, the congress disapproves it, what face will he show the world ?

The people now in US ask, what is their for US in this action. Why should it take this moral high stand, when the rest of the world is not supporting it. Is the evidence crystal clear or it is going to be another intelligence goof up.

What is limited action by the way ? It is one week, one month, hundred missiles, crippling the Syrian army or what exactly it means. Like one journalist says, what happens if the price is paid by US many years later, as was seen in the case of Afghanistan, which went through limited action.

French have already said, they are not in for it and best were the Germans, who simply kept out of it.

Obama has put himself into a very tight spot by prematurely announcing limited strike in Syria and now dillydallying on the same.

As a Nobel peace prize winner, is this the way to get peace into a conflict zone. Specially, when the UN chief is loudly crying for Diplomacy to be given a chance. Rest of the world is equally distressed with the chemical weapons horror seen on TV, but still thinks, best is to get the two warring factions to come forward and work out a peace deal.

Assad has already announced that his will go for elections within 6 months of restoring peace. Therefore, rebels, should come forward and accept the same. Only thing, which is not acceptable is Assad there. And a good solution needs to be found to ask Assad to relinquish politics for good order sake.

If US comes forward and tells Assad, that if he does not accept the peace solution , then with out without UN resolution, NATO will strike and that will be still a good choice and the world might accept it. Same as what happened in case of Libya. But only a limited strike> Nothing gets achieved, except for one more big enemy of US.

Rather then US security becoming stronger, it will have one more set of people, who will standing against it.

There are no deliverable s of limited strike. The world already knows that using these, can land them into International war crimes court and face rest of life in prison. Same should be done to Assad, if found guilty of using chemical weapons. No big stick is required to tell the world, that the same will be used against them, if another country tries the stunt.

Let the UN inspectors do their homework. Let Syrian Govt be given a chance to explain, how the chemical weapons got used and find the real culprits and let diplomacy takes its own turn.

It is already very very late of striking Syria, so let it take some more time to come to a sensible level with clear deliverable s of military action and a stand by peace keep force to immediately come into action, as Assad gets displaced. That would still be acceptable.

Red Line Crossed : Syria

Finally the world powers decide that the Red line is crossed with the usage of chemical weapons.'

Curiously for me, if people die of bombs and rockets and bullets, it is a yellow line, but if they get killed of chemical weapons, it is red line. For the last 3 years, I have been advocating for an action against Syrian forces to stop the massacare, but it was still a yellow line.

Now, when things have become so bad with Jihadis and Al Qaida and hundred other groups fighting against the Syrian army, it hardly makes sense to move further into the conflict.

Mind, it is the same Intelligence services, who said, Saddam had weapons of mass destruction and nothing was found. For this time sure the chemical weapons have been used. Of which there is no doubt. But let fair chance be given to the Syrian Govt to show that they were not the ones to use it.
If actually proven that the Syrian army used chemical weapons, they should be beaten to pulp. No mercy.

Further, the argument being used is that , the attack on Syria is not for regime change, but to stop chemical weapons being used. It should be both.

I was listening to the speech of Comrade Cameron and then a spokesman of US white house and then the  French minister, loudly talking about that UN conventions on chemical weapons and the world cannot accept this usage etc etc.

Will I ever forget in my lifetime the usage of Agent Orange, the chemical weapon by US army in Vietnam war , where 400,000 people were killed and till date people suffer. Does morally US have an argument against Syria on Chemical weapons.

Nevertheless, if it stands up today to correct the situation, I am quite in support of military intervention in Syria and I have been asking for it for years. Though, now I personally feel, it is time to move Assad out and allow the new leadership to take over. It can still be mix of the Syrian rebels and the current leadership. There is generally a fatigue with the war and both parties might accept the situation.

Let us wait and see, what further happens.

Egypt and Syria Revisited

Egypt
Islamist accept to negotiate with the military and request for stopping the crackdown. Media quietly ignores this after flashing out days of killings and protest. None of the global media tried to pose reasonable questions during the debates and interviews.  Result was 1000s of lives lost. It is no more die for Morsi,, but live for Morsi. If only this little thing could have been understood by the leadership of MB and his supporters.

If only media plays a somewhat constructive roll, then to flare up the subject, much can be saved in time. Anyway, now MB has written itself off for a very long time to come. Underground or overground, the love for MB will only dwindle as it did not show this political maturity of " Live for Morsi, against Die for Morsi".

MB should also ask itself this question, why despite its benign work for the last 70 years, the people don't trust them. Why there is so much resentment in Egypt against MB. How the world has changed the perception of religion to be a spiritual force and not a political force. Why religious agenda gets booted out in each country and secularism is accepted more sparingly without the need of commotions and purging.

In Egypt case, clearly the global media did not play a constructive roll and played a theoretical roll of supporting elected democracy, but failing to offer a viable solution in a situation of conflict. They charged up emotions and made the people believe that conflict with the army finally may pave results. What is the outcome now?

Syria

Again, the media is playing a roll same as in Egypt and creating a situation of further madness. It is already too late now for the Western powers to do anything in Syria. In some of my earlier blogs , I wrote about chicken hear-ted diplomacy in Syria and that resulted now in Syria going into the hands of Dogs. It is now no more Syria liberation from Assad, now the battle has been taken over by jihad-is and Al Qaeda .

Western powers will be very foolish to displace Assad now. It is very very late. Any removal of Assad makes the country slip into the hands of Al Qaeda.

Assad would have not been such a fool to invite the UN chemical weapons team and then bomb his own neighborhood with chemical weapons the next day. I would quite accept the Russian theory on this of attack by the rebels , specially at the time, when the UN inspectors were there.  This is certainly a war game being played out. Whatever, it is the price being paid by the innocent civilians and it is a shame to see so many die for nothing.

Assad came out to be a very shrewd politician. Iran, Russia and China supporting Syria makes it almost impossible for any western army to get into a war situation. The fact that Syrian army has resisted the conflict so long, it has reassured Assad that there is still time for him there.

Best is to have a political solution in engaging with Assad and persuading him to step down and give way to a new leadership. All it takes is removal of Assad and everything changes in Syria.

It is too late now to get into a war. More important is to avoid Syria going into the hands of Al Qaeda.

Meantime, the catastrophe of millions of refugees ,pouring into Turkey and Kurdistan continues.

Egypt on Fire

Police crackdown on the protesters and consequent of 1000s dead has left the world really remorse d. I wrote in my last blog that military should refrain from violent use of force and it made the same mistake.

They should have allowed the protesters to continue with their protest. There was very little global support for the protestors. The fact that the interim government had already laid out the time table for the next elections and installed a technocrat functional government, it was good enough for the time being. Now MB has come out of being a victimized lot and gets support from many more.

MB has shown that it does not have political maturity. Otherwise, no way, its leaders would have gone to confront the army and made claims of do or die for Morsi. The whole thing has become very messy now and MB has written itself off from the political scene of Egypt for a long time to come. The army will not allow the MB to come to power again for long time.

If MB was smart, they would have found a political way in the situation and secured their future. However its leadership threw its followers into such a bloody conflict and it still continues. The loss of dead people is the price which the individual families will pay for a long long time and MB leadership will get away with its biz as usual after some time.

Say, I was a voter in Egypt, how would I care, if Morsi is there or another president is there, even if I elected Morsi as my choice. Presidents come and go, what is the big deal. Assuming, I am a member of the party, which elected Morsi, I would still know that the party has a majority and would not shy away from elections. However, this is what is called dirty politics. Where you want to shed the blood of innocent comrades and then win sympathy of their blood and come to power again. Is this really worth ?

MB comrades have to find sense and stop this resistance and get a political solution. Any resistance will have blood shed, sometimes excessive, sometime restrained, but the outcome is still blood spilling. The leadership in MB has to address its people that enough of this has happened and they have the numbers to come to power again.

On UN security council, it should commission a team to talk to the protesters and bring semblance of order, then giving big peace and reconciliation speeches.
However, in the Egypt experience, one thing has emerged for the world that no more Democracy will be about simple winning elections. It will be about delivering results to the people. Though in this case , it is a coup, but I will be happy, if there is a system which pulls the government down with people dissonance, other then army power.